A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
